Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
SNAP Participants Age 60+ Share, FY2025
USDA Food and Nutrition Service Characteristics of SNAP Households FY2025, SNAP QC sample, share of all SNAP participants who are age 60 or older, first print
current forecast · 80% CI20.4%
19.5%20.4%21.3%
history:FY2022 SNAP participants age 60+ share: 18.3%FY2023 SNAP participants age 60+ share: 19.5%FY2024 SNAP participants age 60+ share: 19.8%
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst · 2026-07-21T02:16:21Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- July 21, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.5
- ledger fact
- usda.fns.snap.participants_age_60_plus.share.fy2025.first_print
Key drivers
- Aging of the SNAP caseload supports further increase in the age-60-plus share
- FY2024 showed continued but slower growth after the FY2022-FY2023 jump
- Possible administrative and eligibility-composition shifts are treated mainly as uncertainty rather than a separate point adjustment
- SNAP QC annual characteristics data, not monthly participation tables, are the resolver
Resolution
- source
- USDA Food and Nutrition Service Characteristics of SNAP Households: Fiscal Year 2025, Appendix Table A.29
- expected
- May 20, 2027
- rule
- Resolve to 100 times Appendix Table A.29 elderly individuals age 60 or older divided by total participants in the first USDA FNS Characteristics of SNAP Households: Fiscal Year 2025 report, rounded to one decimal percentage point. Use the first public FY2025 report print tied to the ledger-specified 2027-05-20 annual Characteristics release date; ignore later revised PDFs, addenda, or corrected tables unless USDA explicitly withdraws and replaces the first public report on the same posting date.
- Data point
- usda.fns.snap.participants_age_60_plus.share.fy2025.first_print
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.